After a great French Open, we get Wimbledon starting in less than a week! Federer is the huge favorite, and deservedly so imo, as the best of this generation. You have to lay 2:1 in order to bet him, but he is not just any favorite, he is perhaps the best player of all time. I am playing:
Federer to win Wimbledon -200
Some points to back him below. Any thoughts or comments appreciated. Any thoughts on the Women's side are also appreciated, as I don't have quite as good a grasp on it.
* Federer's career tracks comparably to Sampras', but Fed is far superior on clay, and in general faces much weaker competition than Sampras on other surfaces. Sampras won 8 out of 9 straight Wimbledons, losing only 1 match in 9 freaking years. This points to similar dominance to be expected from Federer.
* In '03, Fed dropped only 1 set in the entire tournament. In '04, he dropped only 2 sets in the entire tournament, one of them being in a tiebreaker. In '05, he again dropped only 1 set in the entire tournament, in a tiebreaker. That is 21 straight wins for 63 sets won and only 4 dropped in 3 years.
By comparison, in Sampras' first 3 Wimbledon victories, he dropped 3 sets in '93, 1 in '94, and 6 in '95. That is 10 sets dropped. So even in comparing dominant champions, we see that Federer is clearly superior to Sampras compared to their relative competition.
* Just as Nadal broke the claycourt record and is perhaps the best ever on clay, Federer has now tied the grasscourt record and will almost certainly break the current mark. He is perhaps the best ever on grass, although Sampras is a tough comparison. It is virtually assured that Fed will break the grasscourt record by a wide margin, as he should easily win at least the first several rounds of Wimbledon, barring injury.
* Although he is the heavy favorite, favorites can still be undervalued. Nadal was the heavy favorite and handily won the French. As with Nadal on clay, when playing on specialized surfaces and when considering the historical dominance of the current players, the favorites are undervalued imo.
Federer to win Wimbledon -200
Some points to back him below. Any thoughts or comments appreciated. Any thoughts on the Women's side are also appreciated, as I don't have quite as good a grasp on it.
* Federer's career tracks comparably to Sampras', but Fed is far superior on clay, and in general faces much weaker competition than Sampras on other surfaces. Sampras won 8 out of 9 straight Wimbledons, losing only 1 match in 9 freaking years. This points to similar dominance to be expected from Federer.
* In '03, Fed dropped only 1 set in the entire tournament. In '04, he dropped only 2 sets in the entire tournament, one of them being in a tiebreaker. In '05, he again dropped only 1 set in the entire tournament, in a tiebreaker. That is 21 straight wins for 63 sets won and only 4 dropped in 3 years.
By comparison, in Sampras' first 3 Wimbledon victories, he dropped 3 sets in '93, 1 in '94, and 6 in '95. That is 10 sets dropped. So even in comparing dominant champions, we see that Federer is clearly superior to Sampras compared to their relative competition.
* Just as Nadal broke the claycourt record and is perhaps the best ever on clay, Federer has now tied the grasscourt record and will almost certainly break the current mark. He is perhaps the best ever on grass, although Sampras is a tough comparison. It is virtually assured that Fed will break the grasscourt record by a wide margin, as he should easily win at least the first several rounds of Wimbledon, barring injury.
* Although he is the heavy favorite, favorites can still be undervalued. Nadal was the heavy favorite and handily won the French. As with Nadal on clay, when playing on specialized surfaces and when considering the historical dominance of the current players, the favorites are undervalued imo.
